A war-triggered food crisis needs our immediate attention

While the people of Ukraine face an ongoing nightmare, the Russian invasion has set in motion a global food crisis that requires our attention and immediate action. In fact, the war has knocked the global food system off its axis, risking a humanitarian disaster. This shift comes on top of already existing disruptions, which have caused record food prices that many people in poorer countries can no longer afford. Rising energy and fertiliser costs for farmers around the globe, an advancing climate crisis that is destroying harvests, and the impact of the COVID-19-pandemic add tremendous pressure to the global food system.

That said, even as late as February 2022, the global food market was deemed resilient as producers around the world coped with this challenging environment. Now, with a devastating war in Ukraine, we have reason to believe that a massive supply disruption is very likely to happen – with severe consequences for millions of people. As a representative of the market economy, let me be clear: the market alone will not solve the immediate impact on the global food system caused by Russian aggression. What we need now immediately is bold public-private action to prevent a humanitarian crisis of epic proportions.

Ukraine is one of the most important suppliers of wheat, corn, oils, and other essential commodities to the world. Known as the breadbasket of the world, the country has secured the food supply for parts of the Middle East and East Africa, including countries like Egypt and Lebanon whose stability is paramount for the region. Prior to the war, the USDA projected that Ukraine’s grain exports would increase strongly to 14% of the world total. Now we have to assume the exact opposite: What we see today suggests that Ukraine will not be able to make an adequate contribution to global food exports.

Ukrainian farmers are working hard to ensure there will be a harvest later this year, but this will be jeopardised if conflict zones spread to agricultural areas. In addition, economic sanctions and counter sanctions are complicating exporters’ ability to move agricultural products into the global marketplace. The even bigger concern is the growers’ ability to plant in the war zone. Usually, March and April are the most important months for Ukrainian farmers to plant seeds and use fertilisers. If Ukrainian farmers cannot plant, there will be significantly less harvest during the summer, leading to spiraling prices.

Adding to the pressure are the ongoing droughts in Northern Africa and the Middle East, as well as the La Nina weather phenomenon. If weather patterns play out as they did ten years ago, this will have an additional negative effect on the 2022 global harvest. Furthermore, we must keep a potential ecological crisis on our radar, as there is a real danger of increased deforestation if commodity prices continue to rise.

The World Food Program calculates 283 million humans are currently facing acute hunger with 45 million on the verge of starvation. The knock-on effects of the war in Ukraine could double those numbers.

In this situation, we need to immediately step-up as companies, governments, and international organisations to ensure food security:

• Support harvesting in conflict zones. We need to support Ukrainian growers as much as possible. The consensus statement by the ‘Agricultural Market Information System’, issued on March 5 and supported by various countries including Russia and Ukraine, is a sign of hope. It calls for “avoiding any measures that would disrupt global food trade and negatively affect global food security.”
  
  
• Separate essential from non-essential goods. International society is faced with an almost impossible dilemma: the need for strong economic sanctions against Russia and the need to maintain recent levels of food production to avoid what David Beasley has called “an absolute catastrophe”. I believe both are possible. I strongly support strict sanctions but urge the international community to see food and health as essential goods for humankind. We need to avoid unintended consequences of sanction regimes that further threaten the global supply.
  
  
• Collaborate at scale. We need to urge all relevant parties to protect food and food-related goods as essential and support the basic supply, especially to import-dependent countries. This is a call on countries to release their grain stocks on the market and support the hunger relief efforts of the World Food Program. And it’s a call on global companies like ours and our competitors to jointly work on solutions for this unprecedented challenge and not take advantage of this humanitarian crisis.
  
  
• Focus on smallholder farmers. Given their essential role in providing food security to the world’s poorest communities, governments and companies need to ensure that smallholder farmers and subsistence farmers receive full support to increase their agricultural output.

The clock is ticking. Every day the war continues, the global food crisis will exacerbate. And the sooner we reach a global consensus on the severity of the situation and come up with solutions under the political leadership of G7 and G20, the better. Mid- to long-term, innovation in agriculture will be an indispensable prerequisite for sufficient crop supply for large parts of the global population. It will help farmers to achieve higher yields on less land, adapt to climate change and become less dependent on fertilisers. But for now, the focus is on providing rapid support in times of war. It’s not the moment for small and isolated efforts, but for bold and broad action to prevent a catastrophe.